Innovative development in modern conditions
One of the bright features of innovative development in modern conditions is the ecologization of the system of development of modern civilization. The ideas of expanding the sphere of human morality to the inclusion in it of nature and the need to form a new, environmentally oriented worldview are now estimated by researchers as conditions for the movement of mankind to a new civilizational paradigm. This trend must necessarily be reflected in mathematical models of environmental objects and processes. The method of this reflection depends on the aspect in which the ecological components manifest themselves.
Research questions: identification, comparison and analysis of impact indicators of the system and the consequences of each process, as well as the study of patterns and causal relationships in the behavior of pollutants in the natural environment from the standpoint of the integrity of the system; construction of mathematical models taking into account the parameters that have an impact on the balance of the development of the system and the relevant processes due to the introduction of a certain controlling influence; development of strategies using information technologies based on data on current parameters and data for integrated assessment of decisions regarding the priorities of the management system.
The purpose of this work is to develop scientific and methodological foundations for the creation and application of information technologies and information systems for automated processing, analysis and synthesis of structured, information and functional models of objects and management processes, justification of the structure of the balance model of cause-effect relationships and behavior of pollutants substances in the natural environment.
Known mathematical models that describe the threat scenarios and allow you to make a quantitative assessment of the probability of a negative event are used: methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics; analytical deterministic methods, methods of the theory of random processes; topological methods based on graph theory; methods of fuzzy set theory; methods of game theory; simulation methods.
In general, environmental risk assessment models are expert in nature, theoretically, they use conditional pollution risk assessments are not able to assess the risk in time and therefore cannot be management tools.
With the help of the model of the researched system, which will take into account the cause-effect relationships and the behavior of pollutants in the environment, it is possible to quickly predict its possible changes in different scenarios and risk situations. The parameters that will affect the function of behavior in the system can be used as levers of control and optimal decision-making.
Having seen the model consequences of a particular scenario, you can choose a less dangerous and more useful for the system under study. The main advantage of modeling in the creation and selection of management scenarios is that models can quickly predict the consequences of targeted actions for many years, and even centuries.