German hegemony in the euro-zone?
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Every country in the world has its own monetary unit, which acts as a means of payment, and allows various types of monetary transactions within the country. However, between different countries should also carry out any cash transactions. In the currency of which country to make payments , and how these currencies will relate to who sets this ratio? To ensure mutual payments between the countries is the monetary system.
One should distinguish between national and global monetary system. The national currency system represents the form of organization of currency relations of the country, determined by domestic legislation. Currency — is the economic relations associated with the functioning of world money and maintain the various types of international economic relations (foreign trade, migration of capital and labor, the transfer of income, loans and grants, scientific and technical exchange, etc.). National monetary system is inextricably linked to the monetary system of the country and relies on its zolotorudnye (key currency). The world monetary system expresses the form of international monetary relations, legally fixed by interstate agreements. It combines zolotorudnye (key) currency, international accounts currency composition and structure of the international monetary liquidity, the regime of international credits and courses, the conditions of mutual convertibility of currencies and the international monetary organizations, like the international monetary Fund (IMF).
World currency market is an integral part of the global monetary system. Analyzing the situation in this market, it can be concluded about the state of the world's monetary system.
Now in the global currency market, a new monetary unit — the European single currency, the Euro. In the future more will consider all the pros and cons of her appearance, as well as trends of its distribution in Russia and the world at large.
The success (or failure) of a new currency in Russia is largely dependent on the awareness and attitudes of economic operators on how quickly they will be able to develop the skills and habit of working with euros. In this regard, the country needs to organize appropriate awareness-raising activities. It should be done in close cooperation with the authorities of EMU and based on the experience gained in the countries of the European Union. The scope of the information campaign in Russia will, of course, much smaller than in the EU. However to ignore the need for this work because without it it is impossible to implement the political line of Russia in relation to the Euro.
As practice shows, the EU, the information it is advisable to deploy at several levels: Federal government, regional administrations, professional associations and directly for banks and enterprises.
The task of the Government and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation consists in defining strategic interests and objectives of the country towards the Euro, to purposefully influence the formation of public opinion through the media.
Local authorities should identify the most relevant objectives in relation to Euro based on the specifics of the region. It should be borne in mind that regional strategies are likely to differ from each other. Thus, in areas of Russia bordering the EU (Finland), will require detailed study of the exchange of cash, preparation of small and medium business; in areas related to EU transport corridors — use euros when paying forwarding services; oil and gas production areas — the issues of billing contracts for the supply of raw materials.
Special attention should be paid to the dissemination of information in remote areas, as well as appropriate training of employees of local administrations. Local authorities should be organized with the assistance of Federal agencies, courses and seminars for businesses and organizations with ties to partners of the Euro zone. In practice, local companies have very limited understanding of the practical organization of payments in Euro and face great difficulties in solving the most simple, routine tasks.
Professional and Bank associations should undertake the preparation of specific industry issues related to the use of the Euro. They could play an important role in preparation for work with Euro small and medium enterprises. Banking associations could help financial institutions to carry out training and upgrading of computer programs. By the way, the last, the experience of the EU, requires large expenditures of time and money, as it involves the adjustment and subsequent debugging of individual computer programs, adapted to the specific needs of the enterprise user.
Significant burden on organization advocacy will fall on banks. They will in a timely manner inform customers about the possibilities of using the Euro, to develop information packets targeted to specific categories of partners — large companies, foreign trade firms, investment companies, small and average business, physical persons.
At the global level the introduction of the Euro should simplify the life of businessmen, dealing with Europe, since the introduction of the single currency will make unnecessary purchases of different currencies and will remove the risk of fall of a particular currency against the ruble. On the other hand, there is associated with this one fundamental risk to Russian economy in General. Historically, the EU is the largest trading partner of Russia, which absorbs 40% of Russia's export and import turnover. Therefore, the Euro will be the currency of settlement for about half of the trading operations of the Russian Federation (after all, most Eastern European currencies not tied to the US dollar, and the mark). However, in Russia and the population and businesses, and the state is the dominant reserve currency is the us dollar. In the last two years it was profitable - concerned global investors shot down the course of the brand (and consequently almost all other eurovalue) from 1.30 to 1.75 per dollar, and European goods much cheaper. Why? Here is a long chain of causes and effects. Germany, which survived two horrific hyperinflation in 1923 and 1945-48 years (in the first case, after the stabilization had to change money at a ratio of 1 billion old one brand new), was charged to its Central Bank, the only obligation is to prevent inflation at all costs. As a result, the mark has been and remains the pride of the Germans: the postwar inflation was lower only in Japan. So, by the way, 80% of Germans are against the introduction of the Euro (according to surveys). The introduction of the Euro will give a dominant role in European Finance from the Bundesbank of Germany under the leadership of notebooks inflation fighter Dr. Tetmajera to the new Bank jointly managed by representatives of different European countries. Will be among them and the representatives of Italy and Spain, the currency which suffered from severe inflation, which was brought down only through strict measures before the introduction of the Euro. Will the Finns and the Austrians, the Central Banks which are required not only to fight inflation but also to promote economic development, combat unemployment, etc. Many of you had doubts about the ability of the new administration to maintain the stability of the Euro. Because of that, exposure to European currencies and fell against the dollar and the yen. Now imagine that the new European Central Bank will be fully functional, the stability of the Euro will not be subjected to doubt. The Euro, already existing in the form of cash, will rise. And then European goods, and most importantly machinery and spare parts is expected to grow dramatically in the applicable in Russia dollars. On the other hand, the Russian raw materials, the prices of which are traditionally dollarsaver, not expensive.. ..In personal terms for Russians traveling abroad will be both good and bad. Good: when you travel abroad and you will not suffer with to exchange in each country. The savings can be large - on average $1000 buy currency in Europe, people spend $ 30 on commissions exchange offices. Under the new system single currency (as well as a uniform Schengen visa) will be valid throughout the EC. So, driving along the route Germany - Belgium - France, you don't have to change first on the RUB marks, then the Belgian, and in the end and in French francs. The bad: with a single currency and single economic space of prices of goods and services in different countries will equalise. Therefore the prices are relatively cheap in Portugal and Sweden, the outrageously expensive will move approximately equal to the values - and, as you know, prices tend to rise but rarely fall. On the other hand, for the “dollar” of the Russians the fall of the Euro against the dollar may lead to increase their purchasing power.
In conclusion, it can be noted that financial projections for accuracy to very close to the weather forecasts, So that to know whether the storm or clear weather, we can only after a solemn funeral francs and guilders two years later.